by Dr. Steve Elwart

The state of the American nuclear arsenal is in disarray. Last year, the Air Force stripped an unprecedented 17 officers of their authority to control and, if necessary, launch, nuclear missiles after a string of a poor reviews of their unit’s launch skills. The group’s deputy commander said it is suffering “rot” within its ranks.

That rot is something Russia has taken full advantage. While nuclear weapons and their mission simply do not matter much to post—Cold War American leaders, they matter very much to the Russians.

Nuclear arms have always been viewed by the Russians (and before that, the Soviets) as a measure of superpower. This is especially true today. The collapse of the Soviet Union left the remnant Russian Federation a country without the usual trappings of a great power, including a conventional military force or the ability to project it. Russia’s nuclear arsenal is the last vestige of what is keeping it from being in Barack Obama’s words, a “regional power.” (U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia, “A gas station masquerading as a country,” in response to that country’s takeover of Ukraine.)

Today nuclear weapons not only are a source of Russia’s national pride, but they are an integral part of that nation’s military planning. While the American military and government officials see little use for nuclear weapons now that the Soviet Union is no more, the Russians continue to think about nuclear arms as both strategically and tactically useful.

This has become more apparent as the Russian military has been shown to be extremely weak when compared to their superior adversaries—the United States and NATO.

During the Cold War, the Soviets and the Americans constructed nuclear forces that mirrored each other, relying on a triad of ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), submarine-launched missiles, and long-range bombers to ensure the survivability of at least part of their nuclear strike capability and to maintain the ability to deliver a massive retaliatory strike.

It was a mad concept aptly named “Mutual Assured Destruction”.

Both countries maintain this conflict philosophy, with some significant differences. Russia, a massive land empire spanning two continents, commanded plenty of real estate and therefore buried most of its deterrent in underground silos. The United States, a maritime superpower, put most of its striking power underwater on submarines, where they remain. (The missile silos where they stored their land-based missiles are quickly being sold as surplus, with some of them being turned into homes, restaurants, and even office space.)

The Soviet long-range bomber force never progressed beyond propeller-driven aircraft that had only enough range for one-way suicide missions, while the Americans upgraded their air arsenal with the stealth B–2 bombers and kept the aging B–52 bombers still in service with most of the crews manning them being younger than the planes themselves.

Because of the Cold War standoff in Europe, East and West also developed a large arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons. By the late 1960s, the United States and the USSR had tens of thousands of strategic and tactical weapons.

Even more destabilizing, each side developed an INF (intermediate-range nuclear forces) in the 1970s and 1980s. These weapons with flight ranges more than 300 miles (500 km) but less than 3,500 miles (5,500 km) can reach all European NATO capitals from Russian territory, and conversely, could reach Moscow from NATO bases, in a matter of minutes, cutting decision times for national leaders from minutes to literally seconds.

This entire class of weapons was banned by Soviet-American agreement in the INF Treaty of 1987.

The jewel in the Soviet nuclear crown was the Strategic Rocket Forces, a separate branch of the armed forces dedicated solely to ICBMs. The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces still enjoy a position of privilege in the Russian military. Like the other Russian branches, they even have their own patron saint: St. Barbara, the patroness of people who, for want of a better description, work with things that explode. (It is interesting to note that the officially atheist Soviets established the SRF on St. Barbara’s Day—December 17—in 1959.

The Russian nuclear arsenal of today is much like its American counterpart. It is a smaller version of its former self, but it is more than capable of destroying its enemies in Europe and North America.

Recent Russian publications have bragged that Russia has now surpassed the United States in nuclear capability and they credit the new START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) treaty the Obama Administration signed with Russia in 2011. It was signed on April 8, 2010 to replace the SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty) treaty which was due to expire on December 31, 2012. The Russians tout this new treaty as the breathing room they needed to catch up to the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

In 2014, Russia could boast of 1,643 nuclear warheads in its war chest while the United States has 1,642 according to the annual report submitted by the U.S. Department of State report which was required under the terms of the new treaty. The gap has widened since then.

Marc Schneider, a former Pentagon strategic weapons specialist stated, “All U.S. numbers have declined since the new START treaty went into force. The fact that this is happening reflects the ineffectiveness of the Obama administration’s approach to New START.

U.S. Senator James Inhofe (former ranking Republican on the Senate Committee on Armed Services) said, “Not only did Russia violate the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INRF) Treaty signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, it did so while negotiating with the Obama Administration over the New START. The White House was at best naÔve to Russian duplicity; at worse, it was complicit.”

While Vladimir Putin knows he has gone about as far as he can go in Eastern Europe in projecting power without prompting a NATO response, it is flexing its muscles in other ways.

Buoyed by its new offensive strike advantage, it is flexing its military muscle in other arenas.

It is flying ever closer to the United States and Canadian borders and stationing ships closer to those coastlines. There also have been reports of “mystery submarines” encroaching into the territorial waters of the Scandinavian countries, even sailing up fjords in the region. (In response, these countries are stationing retired military personnel in the area as “coast watchers” to try to track their movements.

Last November it also signed a new agreement to build eight nuclear power plants in Iran, further destabilizing the Middle East and creating yet another source of worry to a United States which is trying to disengage itself from the area.

Plans have also been announced by Russia that they intend to renew 100% of their aging arsenal, rather than the 70% they had previously announced.

In a new disturbing development, Russia also announced that they were discontinuing the co-operation agreement they had with the U.S. in securing the storage of nuclear material in Russia which could lead to a rouge element in Russia stealing more fissile material than has already been pilfered and selling that material to third parties, which many suspect has been going to jihadists who are more than willing to use them.

Putin accused the West of using the crisis in Ukraine to reinvigorate NATO, warning that Moscow will ponder a response to the alliance’s decision to create a rapid-reaction “spearhead” force to protect Eastern Europe.

His comments came as Russia’s relations with the West have plunged to their lowest point since the Cold War due to Russia’s role in the crisis in Ukraine. They appear to show that the Russian leader is determined to pursue a tough course in the face of more Western sanctions.

Addressing a Kremlin meeting on weapons modernization, Putin ominously warned the West against getting “hysterical” about Moscow’s re-arming efforts, in view of US missile defense plans and other decisions he said have challenged Russia’s security.

“We have warned many times that we would have to take corresponding countermeasures to ensure our security,” Putin said, adding that he would now take personal charge of the government commission overseeing military industries.

What makes all these actions by Russia all the more worrisome is the fact that time is working against that county. Its oil and gas reserves, its leverage against an energy hungry Europe is dwindling and its economic system is beginning to collapse, partly thru the sanctions imposed on it by the West and thru its own internal weaknesses.

Many in Russia feel that it must act now to secure its future. Most analysts believe that they won’t make an overt move against the West, namely NATO, they cannot be sure.

If Russia cannot secure its future thru the soft power of economics and intimidation, it may attempt to pull itself out of its predicament the way many countries have in the past.

Start a shooting war.

Related Articles

• Data shows drop in U.S. nuclear arsenal, growth in Russia’s
  — Air Force Times
• Does Russia Think Their New Nuclear Weapons Could Win A War?
  — Forbes
• Russia developing new nuclear weapons to counter US, NATO
  — New York Post
• Russia ends US nuclear security alliance
  — The Boston Globe
• US and Russia in danger of returning to era of nuclear rivalry
  — The Guardian

From:  https://koinoniainstitute.org/